F-B-F.org -

But without their supporters they are lame ducks.And so we come back to the problem – for Adams and Trimble – of their supporters and what compromise, if any, would be acceptable to them. The only way to find a way out is to do some serious talking.The decommissioning problem must be Tony Blair’s immediate political priority. They surely know that setting up an executive and binding Sinn Fein into the process is the best guarantee against a return to violence. The man has a serious problem.I remember a moderate Unionist assembly man telling me a few months back: “I’ll stick with David all the way; I will sit down with Sinn Fein but only if there is decommissioning.” The problem is not confined to the backwoodsmen or the bigots, who never had any stomach for the process in any case.There are people who want the process to work, but whose electoral constituency demands decommissioning. I am convinced that Trimble and those close to him wish this problem would simply disappear. The Nobel Prize has raised his international standing, but I can’t imagine it will make much difference in the cold meeting halls of the Moy or Castlederg.David Trimble is a man under immense strain. It is silly to characterise his stance on decommissioning as “typical Unionist intransigence” simply because over the past three decades we have become accustomed to Unionist intransigence This is different.

And to quote from David Trimble’s recent speech to his sceptical young Unionists: “We have at all points to respond to the actual situation we are in You can’t start from an imagined or idealised position. You have to start from where you are in terms of reality.” Reality can be a damned unpleasant place if you have lost a family member in the conflict. That is true for nationalists as well as Unionists.Mr Trimble’s dilemma mirrors that of Mr Adams He is not the absolute master of his own group. If it had been, then prisoners guilty of the most horrible crimes would not be walking free before their time.This is a peace that rewards the perpetrator as much as it rewards the victim That may be profoundly unpleasant, but it is where we are.

This process has never been about a strict moral interpretation of the situation. If you accept the primacy of politics, then keep within the Mitchell principles and hand over the weapons That is the moral imperative But let us be honest here. It does not declare a timetable for British withdrawal and reunification with the South. By persuading the militarists to settle for less, Adams achieved the most significant political victory of any republican leader in more than a generation. It required courage and stealth, and there were desertions along the way.

But he and McGuinness brought the majority of the movement with them.We know the moral answer If you truly believe in peace, give up your guns and bombs. He could not use Collins’s exact words but, as in 1922, the deal essentially promises republicans the “freedom to achieve freedom”. There is a gnawing suspicion on the part of the militarists that the Good Friday deal was an implicit recognition of partition. Agreeing to the principle of Unionist consent denies the logic that provided the justification for the IRA’s 30-year war.But on this political point it was possible for Adams to fudge, as Michael Collins did before him. There is still a sizeable body in the ranks of the IRA that would happily return to war if given the nod of approval from on high.So far Adams and McGuinness have managed to outmanoeuvre the hawks.

The political negotiations were prolonged enough to deny the hard men a single issue around which to rally support Immediate decommissioning would provide that issue. Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness know that better than anybody else.I don’t doubt that in practical, everyday terms the armed struggle has been abandoned. But for appearances’ sake the gun will be around for a while yet That is the reality. I tend to believe the warnings of a dangerous IRA split in the event of immediate decommissioning. They have stayed in the mainstream movement to preserve republican unity. The ghost of past republican splits, with all their bloodshed, has provided a strong imperative to hold together But their loyalty is still conditional. There are many in its ranks who regard Gerry Adams and the politicos with deep suspicion.